By Richard Krugel

Updated March 29th, 2019

Introduction to Fibonacci Trading

Leonardo of Pisa, also known as Fibonacci was a famous Italian mathematician during the middle ages and he was the first to write about a special sequence of numbers. When these numbers were added up in a certain way they resulted in a ratio that can be used to describe the special proportions or building blocks that exists within nature.

Today these ratios are known as Fibonacci ratios and the most popular ratio of all is 1.618 or the inverse of that 0.618. Mathematicians and scientists refer to this number as the golden ratio. As in nature, so too does Fibonacci ratios work very well in the world of financial trading when performing technical analysis. They are a very reliable indication of future support and resistance levels which price action almost magically tend to gravitate towards and react from.

There are two main ways of performing technical analysis with Fibonacci ratios:  Fibonacci retracements and Fibonacci extensions.

Fibonacci Retracements

The most commonly used retracement ratios are:

  • 0.382 %
  • 0.5 %
  • 0.618 %
  • 0.786 %

Let’s use an example of how Fibonacci retracement levels can be used in an upward trending market:

Fibonacci trading

A great way to determine where a pullback or correction that moves opposite from the main trend will end, is to use Fibonacci retracements. Our first chart above is that of Gold and shows most of the upward trend that this commodity experienced in 2016.

To use Fibonacci retracements a trader will connect a low on a chart with a high that materialized after that low (in an uptrend) and by doing this try to determine where that pullback may find support again.

I marked most of the corrections with red arrows, and a closer look shows how well each correction found support and reversed back up again from a Fibonacci retracement ratio.

Fibonacci Extensions

The most commonly used extension ratios are:

  • 100 %
  • 138.2 %
  • 161.8 %
  • 178.6 %
  • 200 %

The following example shows how Fibonacci extension levels can be used, but this time in a downward trending market:

Fibonacci strategy

When Gold experienced a downward trending phase that ended around December 2016, Fibonacci extensions could have been used to determine where price may find future support.

Fibonacci extension ratios work well in determining where a trend may find support (in our example) and when price does find support either a correction might follow or a trend can come to a complete end.

Analyst or traders that use Fibonacci extension will connect 3 points on a chart. In our example a high will be connected with a low and then with a lower high again. The Fibonacci extension drawing tool will then project expanded ratios downwards and these levels will be closely watched for support or change in trend.

I drew two sets of Fibonacci extensions. The first one is indicated by little black arrows and the second set with little red arrows. The green arrows show how well these Fib extension ratios offered support as soon as price reached them.

Using Fibonacci Levels as Part of a Strategy

Although Fibonacci ratios work well to find levels of support or resistance, I do not use them on their own when making trading decisions. I have found over the years that using a combination of different proven methods work better than relying on one alone.

Instead I like using a combination of the following:

  • Multi timeframe analysis
  • Corrective pattern recognition
  • Market geometry
  • Momentum divergence
  • Reversal candlestick patterns

My strategy in a nutshell was developed to determine the main trend and then to join that trend at the end of corrections with as little risk as possible.

What follows will be a brief overview of these methods followed by a real example of a recent trade I took when combining all these methods into one.

Multi Time Frame Analysis

When I trade I use 3 charts i.e. a 4 hour, 30 minute and 5 minute chart. Each time frame serves its own purpose with the 4 hour chart showing me the trend and when a correction is most likely to occur by using my Fib ratios.

My intermediate 30 minute chart is used to look at price action a little closer and to determine which corrective pattern might be developing. I then use various market geometry techniques to pinpoint where that correction is most likely to end. I again use Fib ratios on this chart when needed.

The smallest time frame I use is a 5 minute chart. This is an important chart as I use it as an entry confirmation tool that filters out the bad setups from the good, thereby increasing my probability of success on any particular trade while keeping my risk to a minimum.

Corrective Pattern Recognition

Since my strategy relies on finding the end of corrections, I have made a serious study of what corrective patterns look like and have found ways to exploit their individual characteristics that they tend to repeat over and over again.

Knowing what these characteristics are and using techniques such as market geometry and Fibonacci ratios, in combination with this knowledge, has helped me to pin point the end of corrections with a high degree of accuracy.

Market Geometry

Market geometry techniques aim to define market structure as all markets display geometric formations that are repetitive in nature. The most common market geometry tools used today are pitchforks and channel lines and they can offer a good indication as to where price might be heading to in the future or find support/resistance. I only use pitchforks as a reliable way of finding the end of corrections.

Momentum Divergence

My strategy relies heavily on pure price action and the only indicator I use is a MACD histogram which is loaded on my 5 minute entry chart. The term momentum divergence simply refers to when price keeps moving in one direction but the force or momentum of that move has started to decrease. We shall take a closer look at this later.

Reversal Candlestick Patterns

There are hundreds of candlestick patterns that traders can follow to tell them various things. I use a select number of these patterns to confirm the areas I want to trade from, as they tend to pop up when price is getting ready to reverse. They therefore make a great addition to my overall strategy by telling me it’s time to enter high probability setups with little risk.

Putting It All Together

Now that I have covered all the methods I use in my strategy, I will next show you a real example of a trade on the AUD/USD currency pair that puts all of these methods into action in a systematic fashion.

Step 1: Determine trend and use Fibonacci extensions on 4 hour chart

Fibonacci ratios

Using simple trend lines, I was able to determine that AUD/USD has broken its previous intermediate blue trend line to the upside and its previous market structure (red horizontal line). So the intermediate trend at that time was upwards making me search for long entries.

Using my Fibonacci ratios tool I connected the 3 swings (black arrows) to project my Fib extension ratios upwards, assuming that price will find resistance at one of those levels giving me a corrective pattern.

One can see that price started a corrective pattern when it hit the 1.786% Fib ratio.

Step 2: Identify corrective pattern and where it might end on 30 minute chart

Fibonacci strategy

It was not until around the 20th December 2017 that I became confident that AUD/USD was forming one of my favourite corrective patterns i.e. a Symmetrical Triangle correction. When I trade these particular patterns I do not use pitchforks, but I knew that if this was a Symmetrical triangle that I could define it by labelling it as A-B-C-D-E. I know that these patterns always consist of 5 such waves AND that each wave tend to end at Fibonacci retracement levels.

These are the characteristics of corrective patterns I was talking about earlier and knowing these sort of things provides me with the confidence to trade setups with a high degree of probability and confidence. Just look at which Fib ratio levels each wave reversed from!

I knew that wave E would terminate at one of my Fibonacci retracement ratios giving me enough time, in advance to prepare myself for an entry.

Step 3: Look for momentum divergence and reversal candlestick patterns at area of entry

Fibonacci trading

The last step in the process was to first spot momentum divergence (at the area I identified before) and then secondly look for a reversal candlestick formation to confirm an entry.

The MACD histogram is loaded on the bottom panel of my 5 minute chart and it showed that although price was moving downwards into my entry zone that momentum was drying up or diverting from what price was doing. This is called momentum divergence and most reversals at the end of corrections will display this phenomenon.

All that I had to do next was to wait for one of the reversal candlesticks I track and I got that confirmation when the green reversal candle appeared right at my area of entry. This meant that I could now proceed to place a buy order slightly above that candle with a stop loss just below it.

Trade Results

Fibonacci ratios

Following the above mentioned process enabled me to enter a trade with very little risk, right at the end of the correction, before price resumed the intermediate trend that I identified on my 4 hour chart.

My target was set at the start of the correction that I identified and price reached my target in quick succession resulting in a profit that well exceeded the risk I took on.

Conclusion

Using Fibonacci ratios to find areas of support or resistance can provide us with many tradable opportunities especially when used in combination with additional methods that follow a systematic approach.

Fibonacci ratios and Fibonacci trading only formed a small part of my overall methodology, but it was a very important component of the whole.

If you’re interested in taking your trading to the next level, and you’re serious about treating trading like a business, be sure to check out my video training below.

Until next time, happy and profitable trading.

Richard Krugel

We’ve only scratched the surface of understanding market structure and how to trade within it.

If you’d like to see my complete trading strategy – plus my own exact entry criteria for finding the highest profitability trades that most traders completely miss – I highly recommend my video training.

It’s called the Propulsion Method, and it’s my foolproof shortcut to mastering market structure and taking control of your trades.

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In my Propulsion training, you’ll quickly discover:

● How to spot 100%, 300%, and even 800% ROI trades, including
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manage those positions until you take profit

● How to apply a specific set of Market Geometry tools to find
these entries – including the most overlooked tool in your trading
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● How to see through the “noise” and identify natural market
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● How it all ties together and how you can start applying it to your
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Join the conversation! 22 Comments

  1. This is fantastic and very simple to understand and implement

    Reply
  2. Hi Richard,
    Love your site. You put in a lot of energy and time into passing on your knowledge, and I for one really appreciate it. However, I’m finding the recent post on ‘Fibonacci’ levels difficult to follow. I want to gain a better understanding of Fibonacci, as I realize the importance of using it…
    Nice to see somebody out there helping others without wanting a return!

    Reply
    • Hi Anthony,

      Thanks for your reply. Remember that Fibonacci levels only contribute to a small part of my overall strategy as I believe they work best when combined with other analysis tools like pitchforks etc.
      They are very important, like you stated and like anything in trading will take some time to master.

      Reply
  3. Nice trade Richard.

    Reply
  4. I wonder if a trailing stop might be more advantageous than a target. Have you ever considered trailing your stop, or taking partial profits at the fib extension and trailing the remaining position?

    Reply
    • Hi Duane

      If I was correct about finding the end of a correction then my targets which are set at the beginning of a correction should be hit with a high degree of success.
      I do however move my stops and do not allow winning trades to become losing ones.
      I have moved my stops too many times in the past, got stopped out, only to see price eventually reach my target.
      My course does include a way of trailing stops safely.

      Reply
  5. Superb RICHARD. Thank you

    Reply
  6. GREAT Stuff Richard..Thks

    Reply
  7. Hi Richard,

    Nice article,
    I having trouble understand the first picture, the two yellow 0.618 line so closer?
    Could you specify what 2 connect points you drew Fabnocci please?
    Appreciate your help,

    -Candace

    Reply
  8. Ahaa, its nice discussion about this piece of writing at this place
    at this web site, I have read all that, so at this time me also commenting here.

    Reply
  9. What course do you offer?

    Reply
  10. Excellent article Richard …
    Me is difficult the English language, sorry for it.
    Regarding your course, is it possible to use a translator to the materials (videos and notes)? .Ingles ー> Spanish.
    Greetings from Japan.
    J Yamamoto

    Reply
  11. Awesome, simple yet powerful

    Reply
  12. Nice one,how do you use Fibo and pitch fork together.

    Reply
  13. Great golden ratio!

    Reply
  14. This website was… how do I say it? Relevant!! Finally I
    have found something which helped me. Thanks!

    Reply
  15. It’s difficult to find educated people about this subject,
    but you sound like you know what you’re talking about!
    Thanks

    Reply
  16. Many thanks for this, I’m going to definitely share the idea with my favorite customers.

    Reply

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